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NEC Poll Also Offers Starting Point in 2014 Governor’s Race

March 5, 2014

Posted in NEC Poll

An overwhelming number of Granite Staters supports the compromise Medicaid plan being considered this week in Concord. In a poll of 774 registered voters, the plan to extend private insurance to 50,000 New Hampshire citizens enjoys wide public support. Voters also strongly support any effort by lawmakers to extend health insurance coverage to the working poor.

According to the latest NEC Poll, 66% of respondents support the compromise proposal before lawmakers, 25% oppose the idea, and 10% say they are unsure.   Voters were asked if they could support the compromise plan supported by Governor Maggie Hassan and a bipartisan group of New Hampshire Senators.  In addition, 64% of respondents support increasing eligibility of Medicaid to families with incomes up to $32,000 per year.  26% of respondents oppose the idea.  11% said they were unsure. The margin of error in this poll is 3.57%.

“This is a clear message to lawmakers in Concord,” concludes Dr. Ben Tafoya, Director of the NEC Poll. “The public is telling our state leaders to move forward with this plan to expand health coverage to those who can least afford it.  They support the bipartisan approach between the Governor and republicans in the New Hampshire Senate.”

New Hampshire voters were also their opinion about a proposal for universal background checks for any guns purchased through dealers, gun shows or individual sales.  76% of respondents said they support background checks to just 22% who oppose the idea.  3% said they were unsure.

“This result mirrors numbers we have seen in previous polls on this issue,” explains Dr. Wayne Lesperance, Director of the Center of Civic Engagement at NEC. “Even though this has been a deeply partisan debate at the state house and even in Washington, the public views this issue differently.  Republicans, democrats and independents in New Hampshire support background checks for gun purchases.”

These issues will no doubt surface in the 2014 elections. Campaigns for major office have already begun in New Hampshire, and the race for Governor shows the republican challenger is a complete unknown.

Among 774 respondents, Democrat Maggie Hassan, the incumbent Governor, received 42% support.  Republican challenger Andrew Hemingway, the only announced candidate, received just 6% support.  25% of voters said they would prefer a third option, and 27% percent way they do not yet know who they will vote for in November of 2014.

“While the Governor clearly enjoys a sizeable lead in this poll, both candidates can look at these numbers with some level of optimism,” explains Dr. Tafoya.  “When an incumbent crosses the 50% threshold, it is very difficult to unseat him or her.  Governor Hassan is at 42% with many voters undecided. That gives her a deep pool of potential supporters to win over.”

However, Dr. Tafoya believes similar conclusions can be reached for the Republican challenger.  “Although Mr. Hemingway is only at 6%, this poll shows that more than 50% of voters have not decided between the two candidates.  If no other republican joins this race, then Mr. Hemingway can try to win over those voters who are not supporting Governor Hassan.”

That will be a tough task. “Governor Hassan’s job approval rating of 60% in this poll, versus 27% who do not approve of her job in the corner office, gives her a strong base of support from which to grow her support,” explains Tafoya.  “A +33 rating will make it difficult for any GOP challenger to defeat her in the fall.”

Interestingly, when asked which party should have control of the New Hampshire legislature, the results show an even split.  41% believe Democrats should hold the majority, 40% prefer the Republicans to have the majority in Concord, 15% said they were not sure.

“A popular Governor will have coattails on the ballot, which helps all democrats who are running for office,” says Dr. Lesperance.  “But one thing we have learned about New Hampshire voters; they like to see balance between the parties.  These numbers suggest both major parties are on somewhat even footing as we begin the 2014 campaign.”

NEC Poll Shows 2012 GOP Nominee Holds Early NH Lead; Democrats Still Love Hillary Clinton

Posted in NEC Poll

While the love affair between New Hampshire Democrats and Hillary Clinton shows no sign of cooling down, the GOP field in the 2016 campaign for President is filled with plenty of choices and no clear leader.  Given the recent fundraising efforts of former Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney, our most recent poll reserved a slot for the former Massachusetts Governor. And what do you know?

Among 346 likely republican New Hampshire voters, Mitt Romney posted a narrow lead in a crowded field of GOP hopefuls.  Romney grabs 22% support, followed by Senator Rand Paul at 16% and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie in third at 13%.  Texas Republican Ted Cruz received 10%, and Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan each took 7% in this poll.  Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker earned 5%, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal received 3%, and Rick Santorum received 2%.  15% of respondents said they were unsure.  The margin of error in this poll is 5.25%

“This race is wide open and for now, it looks like the only thing that really shakes up the race is the presence of Mitt Romney as an option for voters,” concludes Dr. Ben Tafoya, Director of the NEC Poll. “Chris Christie’s political troubles in his home state have not affected his polling numbers.  But we have seen early visits from some of these names, such as Bobby Jindal, and that also has had no effect on the polls.  It’s early and voters are still gravitating to the most familiar names in the race.”

Of the GOP candidates, Mitt Romney’s support cuts across all ideological sides as measured by New Hampshire’s support for Medicaid expansion from the most recent NEC Poll. While Rand Paul’s support is stronger among those who oppose expansion; Romney sees consistent support across the board. Chris Christie does better among those favoring Medicaid expansion than those opposed. Interestingly, those who favor Medicaid expansion have the highest level of “unsure” picks in this poll.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton dominates.   Among 318 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, Secretary Clinton receives 60% support, followed by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren at 13%, Vice President Joe Biden with 4%, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo at 3%, and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley with 1%. 19% of respondents say they are unsure. The margin of error is 5.52%

“The only truly notable shift in the numbers is the rise in support for Elizabeth Warren and a drop in support for Vice President Biden,” explains Dr. Wayne Lesperance, Director of the Center of Civic Engagement at NEC. “This poll does not bode well for the Vice President.  Despite his daily connection to President Obama and this White House, it is not translating into any measureable democratic party support.”

A final footnote about the democrat’s primary poll: Hillary Clinton enjoys nearly identical support among both men and women; there is virtually no gender gap in this poll.  61% of women support the former Secretary of State and 58% of men support her.

NEC Poll: NH Cautious About Personal Finances and National Economy; Oppose Shopping on Thanksgiving

December 6, 2013

Posted in NEC Poll

Support increased Social Security benefits and Medicaid Expansion

The polling program of New England College frequently connects with residents, voters, and client customers to understand opinions and preferences and identify trends.  Earlier this week when New Hampshire residents were asked if they thought the country’s economy would be stronger over the next year, they cautiously said yes.  In a New England College poll of 675 New Hampshire residents, 43% of respondents expect an improved economy, while 38% do not expect improvement, and 19% are unsure.  The NEC Poll, a nonpartisan entity that is part of the New England College’s Center for Civic Engagement, polled New Hampshire residents who are registered to vote in a telephone survey November 24 and 25, 2013.  The margin of error is 3.77% on all questions.

When asked about their personal finances 42% indicated the next year would be better, while 31% said they disagreed, and 27% were unsure. Poll respondents were also asked about their holiday spending plans and 17% expected to spend more than last year. “NH voters are very cautious about conditions over the next year,” explains Director of the NEC Poll, Dr. Ben Tafoya. “The NEC poll shows voters less optimistic than at this time last year when 49% were expecting better economic conditions. There is a substantial increase in the number of voters unsure about the next year.”

The NEC Poll reports 17% of Granite Staters expect to spend more on holiday shopping this year, slightly down from 19% last year.  57% of those polled said they expected to spend less and 26% said they were unsure which is higher than the 24% who indicated they were unsure last year.

“An interesting finding in the poll is that women are a bit more cautious than men on the future of their personal finances and the national economy,” explains Dr. Wayne Lesperance, Director of the Center of Civic Engagement at NEC.  “This could be a function of the challenging economic conditions that women face particularly in light of slow wage growth in the service sector.”

Thanksgiving Retail Unpopular

The poll also found the trend of retailers opening on Thanksgiving Day to be unpopular with New Hampshire voters. Only 15% of voters support seeing general consumer goods retailers open on Thanksgiving Day with 70% opposed, including 53% of voters who indicated they “strongly disagree” with the growing practice.

NEC also took a snapshot of voter opinion on federal and New Hampshire issues.

Unemployment Dominant Concern

When asked to choose the most important in a list of issues voters chose “lowering unemployment” as the most significant issue for the second year in a row at 40% followed by the federal deficit at 30%, holding down taxes at 16% and holding down prices at 7%.  Among democrats unemployment was cited by 63% of voters while among Republicans the federal deficit was first with 42%; with unemployment and taxes second at 25% each. Voters not in one of the two major parties picked unemployment as their top issue, but by a narrow margin. Women picked unemployment as their top issue at a significantly higher rate than men (43 to 36).

Social Security Benefits & Medicaid Expansion Popular

Increasing Social Security benefits is extremely popular with NH voters with 67% in favor of the action while only 20% oppose. A majority of Democrats (79%), Republicans (55%) and Independent minded voters (69%) all support increased benefits.

New Hampshire voters support the expansion of state Medicaid benefits to families up to $32,000 in income by a 52% to 33% margin, with 15% unsure. The question was designed to solicit feedback on the proposals for Medicaid supported by Governor Maggie Hassan and the House of Representatives. Here again we see a big partisan divide with only 29% of Republicans supporting the idea and Democrats favoring it by an overwhelming 84%. Voters un-enrolled in either party split 51% to 33% in favor of expansion.

NEC Poll About Shutdown & NH Races

October 15, 2013

Posted in NEC Poll

If you ask voters in New Hampshire who is to blame for the current government shutdown in Washington, a clear majority believe the Republicans in Congress are responsible.  In a poll of 1063 registered voters last week, the results show 49% blame the GOP and 30% blame the President for the ongoing gridlock.  16% of those who responded blamed both sides equally.  NEC polled voters in a telephone survey October 7-9.

When asked about their opinion regarding the work of the Tea Party, 49% disapproved of the group, while 40% said they approve of the group, for an overall -9% rating.   The President’s approval rating was 55% to 42% in support of the job he is doing, for an overall +13%.  “We have long known that people are frustrated with what is going on in Washington, but our numbers show where that frustration is aimed,” explains Director of the NEC Poll, Dr. Ben Tafoya. “The NEC poll shows voters lay blame at the feet of Republicans.  As we transition into an election year, there has yet to be any sign of a Republican wave of support for the mid-terms.”

The NEC Poll reports 58% of Granite Staters support the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.  38% of those polled said they disapprove of the program, 5% said they were unsure.  The margin of error is 3%.

“It is early, and there is plenty of time for shifts in voter opinion, but right now, the momentum rests with one party,” explains Dr. Wayne Lesperance, Director of the Center of Civic Engagement at NEC.  “Republicans may need to regroup and redefine their mission going forward, as they work to present a clear alternative to the President and fellow democrats.”

NEC also took a snapshot of voter opinion in races for US Senate and both New Hampshire district races for Congress:

Former Massachusetts Scott Brown remains the top pick for likely GOP voters in 2014, with 47% support.  Former New Hampshire Congressman Charlie Bass earned 21%, meanwhile, the only formally announced candidate, Jim Rubens, picked up 5%, and conservative activist Karen Testerman received 4% support.  23% of voters admitted they were unsure.

In a head to head match-up, Senator Jeanne Shaheen received 51% and Charlie Bass earned 32% support, with 17% of registered voters saying they were unsure.  Senator Shaheen’s approval rating is 56% approve to 33% disapprove, for an overall +23%.

In the first Congressional district, Republican Frank Guinta is the clear front-runner in his primary race, but the general election match-ups show a dead heat.  Among republicans, Guinta earns 54% of support, radio host Jeff Chidester received 7% and newly announced candidate Dan Innis picked up 6%.  33% of voters say they are unsure.

In a head-to-head contest:

In the first Congressional District, incumbent Carol Shea-Porter received 43%, challenger Frank Guinta received 42%, and 15% said they were unsure.  This race represents what could be the third time these two candidates meet on a ballot in New Hampshire. Shea-Porter carries a +3% overall approval rating among voters.  Men narrowly favor Guinta and women narrowly favor Shea-Porter.  Independent voters narrowly favor Congresswoman Shea-Porter.

In the second Congressional District, incumbent Annie Kuster received 46%, GOP challenger Gary Lambert received 26%, and 28% said they were unsure.  Congresswoman Kuster received an overall +14% approval rating from voters.

In a hypothetical match-up in the Governor’s race, incumbent Maggie Hassan (53%) leads Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas (25%), with 22% of voters saying they are unsure.  The Governor’s overall approval rating is +33%, the strongest rating in this poll.

NEC Poll About Shutdown & NH Races

Posted in NEC Poll

If you ask voters in New Hampshire who is to blame for the current government shutdown in Washington, a clear majority believe the Republicans in Congress are responsible.  In a poll of 1063 registered voters last week, the results show 49% blame the GOP and 30% blame the President for the ongoing gridlock.  16% of those who responded blamed both sides equally.  NEC polled voters in a telephone survey October 7-9.

When asked about their opinion regarding the work of the Tea Party, 49% disapproved of the group, while 40% said they approve of the group, for an overall -9% rating.   The President’s approval rating was 55% to 42% in support of the job he is doing, for an overall +13%.  “We have long known that people are frustrated with what is going on in Washington, but our numbers show where that frustration is aimed,” explains Director of the NEC Poll, Dr. Ben Tafoya. “The NEC poll shows voters lay blame at the feet of Republicans.  As we transition into an election year, there has yet to be any sign of a Republican wave of support for the mid-terms.”

The NEC Poll reports 58% of Granite Staters support the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.  38% of those polled said they disapprove of the program, 5% said they were unsure.  The margin of error is 3%.

“It is early, and there is plenty of time for shifts in voter opinion, but right now, the momentum rests with one party,” explains Dr. Wayne Lesperance, Director of the Center of Civic Engagement at NEC.  “Republicans may need to regroup and redefine their mission going forward, as they work to present a clear alternative to the President and fellow democrats.”

NEC also took a snapshot of voter opinion in races for US Senate and both New Hampshire district races for Congress:

Former Massachusetts Scott Brown remains the top pick for likely GOP voters in 2014, with 47% support.  Former New Hampshire Congressman Charlie Bass earned 21%, meanwhile, the only formally announced candidate, Jim Rubens, picked up 5%, and conservative activist Karen Testerman received 4% support.  23% of voters admitted they were unsure.

In a head to head match-up, Senator Jeanne Shaheen received 51% and Charlie Bass earned 32% support, with 17% of registered voters saying they were unsure.  Senator Shaheen’s approval rating is 56% approve to 33% disapprove, for an overall +23%.

In the first Congressional district, Republican Frank Guinta is the clear front-runner in his primary race, but the general election match-ups show a dead heat.  Among republicans, Guinta earns 54% of support, radio host Jeff Chidester received 7% and newly announced candidate Dan Innis picked up 6%.  33% of voters say they are unsure.

In a head-to-head contest:

In the first Congressional District, incumbent Carol Shea-Porter received 43%, challenger Frank Guinta received 42%, and 15% said they were unsure.  This race represents what could be the third time these two candidates meet on a ballot in New Hampshire. Shea-Porter carries a +3% overall approval rating among voters.  Men narrowly favor Guinta and women narrowly favor Shea-Porter.  Independent voters narrowly favor Congresswoman Shea-Porter.

In the second Congressional District, incumbent Annie Kuster received 46%, GOP challenger Gary Lambert received 26%, and 28% said they were unsure.  Congresswoman Kuster received an overall +14% approval rating from voters.

In a hypothetical match-up in the Governor’s race, incumbent Maggie Hassan (53%) leads Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas (25%), with 22% of voters saying they are unsure.  The Governor’s overall approval rating is +33%, the strongest rating in this poll.

NEC Poll: Markey widens lead over Gomez

June 21, 2013

Posted in NEC Poll

Women Voters and Better Ground Game Fueling Democrat’s Momentum

With only a few days until the voters of Massachusetts cast their votes, the latest New England College Poll indicates Ed Markey is surging ahead of Republican Gabriel Gomez.  Following a three-night effort to gather public opinion, Congressman Markey now holds a 20-point lead over Republican businessman Gomez 56%-36%.  8% say they are still unsure going into the final weekend of the special election campaign for US Senate.  The margin of error is 4.07%

The Polling Center conducted a telephone poll of 579 likely voters, from June 18-20. A similar poll conducted at the beginning of the month showed Markey up by 12 percentage points. The numbers indicate Congressman Markey has stretched his lead because of growing support among women and because of a better ground game.

The gender gap tells much of the story of the numbers.  Women voters indicate they support Markey by 61% to 32%. Men break fairly evenly among the two Senate candidates.

“We are not surprised that Markey has extended his lead,” explains Wayne Lesperance, Director of the New England College Center of Civic Engagement.  “Voters identified issues of concern to women as a significant factor in determining their vote. The issue of women’s rights was identified ahead of environmental protection, national defense, terrorism and inflation and Markey has strong support among women voters.”

In addition, the NEC poll uncovers what appears to be a decided advantage for Markey in the area of grassroots outreach.   The poll showed that among voters interviewed in recent days, 58% of respondents indicated that one campaign or another has contacted them.  Among contacted voters, Congressman Markey leads Republican Gomez by 65% to 29%. “This polling data shows the democratic campaign has been effective at raising awareness of the election and rallying support for their nominee,” said Ben Tafoya the Director of the Polling Center. “In addition, major campaign events such as visits by Presidents Obama and Clinton, the strong personal contact by volunteers and the higher spending by Markey on advertising has increased his support and slightly weakened that of Gomez.”

The number one issue on the minds of voters is “lowering the unemployment rate”, followed by the federal deficit.  For those voters identifying the jobs, the environment, and women’s rights as top priorities, there is overwhelming support for Ed Markey.  For those identifying the federal deficit and lowering taxes the number one choice was Gabriel Gomez.

Both candidates continue to hold strong leads among their respective bases with Gabriel Gomez garnering 81% support among Republicans. Gomez also holds his own among Un-enrolled/Independent voters, with 45% support.  The overwhelming Democratic registration edge and Markey’s strong support among Democrats, 88%, means that Gomez continues to struggle to break through to be competitive in the closing days of the race.

The NEC Poll found current national and statewide Massachusetts officeholders have a positive job evaluation among Massachusetts’s voters.  President Barack Obama’s approval stands at 59% to 37%.  Governor Deval Patrick’s job approval is a healthy 61% to 30%.  Senator Elizabeth Warren’s approval is 54% to 28%. “The popularity of the President tracks well with the potential vote for Ed Markey,” says Tafoya. “The Markey campaign has successfully tied Markey to popular leaders such as President Obama.”

“We have to keep in mind that this election is decided by the voters on Tuesday June 25th and polls don’t elect anybody,” explains Tafoya.  “In a special election it is particularly difficult to predict who will vote and those folks make the decision.”

2016 NH Primary Poll: Crowded GOP, but clear leader among DEMS

May 14, 2013

Posted in NEC Poll

2016 NH Primary Poll: Crowded GOP, but clear leader among DEMS

Hillary Clinton Holds Huge Early Primary Poll Lead; No GOP Leader

Henniker, NH- Two very different story lines are shaping up in the early and quiet months before the 2016 New Hampshire Presidential Primary campaign takes shape.  Democrats have a clear frontrunner.  Republicans have a dead heat and a wide-open field, mixed with newcomers and familiar names.

New England College took the temperature of local voters on both sides of the aisle, to see what an early race might look like right now.  In a polling sample of 340 Republican voters, Florida Senator Marco Rubio leads a jam-packed GOP field with 17%.  Fellow Floridian Jeb Bush recorded 16%, followed by Senator Rand Paul at 15%, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at 12%, former Vice Presidential hopeful Paul Ryan at 12%, former candidate Jon Huntsman at 6%, conservative presidential hopeful Rick Santorum has 4% and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has 2%.  The margin of error in the race is 5.3%

“The Republican field is filled with possibility and voters are clearly open-minded about a top pick,” says NEC Polling Center Director Ben Tafoya.  “Although Senator Rubio was the top vote getter with 17%, just as many voters say they are unsure, at 17%.  Republican voters are keeping their options open. This is a wide-open field.”

The Democratic side of the ticket tells a very different story.  Vice President Joe Biden may hold the biggest title in the field, but he starts the 2016 New Hampshire Primary season far behind one of the biggest names in politics.

Among 314 New Hampshire democratic voters, Hillary Clinton scores an early and big lead in the NEC Poll.  65% of democrats say Clinton is their top choice for President.  Vice President Biden is a distant second with 10%.  Senator Elizabeth Warren received 5%, Andrew Cuomo garnered 4%, Governor Deval Patrick received 3% and Martin O’Malley got 0%.  13% are unsure. The democratic primary poll margin of error is 5.5%.

“Our polling is consistent with other surveys that show former Secretary of State Clinton as far and away the preference for Democratic voters in New Hampshire at this early stage,” said Tafoya. “If she does not run in 2016, the Democratic contest in the first in the nation primary will be wide open”.

“An open presidential primary is a very different political animal,” explains Dr. Wayne Lesperance, Director of the Center of Civic Engagement at NEC.  “Independent voters are the eternal wild card in this process.  They can pick either a Republican or Democratic Party ballot on Primary Day in New Hampshire, which makes things unpredictable.  Independents will watch both races to see where their vote will have the biggest impact.”

For additional information contact:

Ben Tafoya      P: 781-315-5920  Email: btafoya@nec.edu
Wayne Lesperance P: 603-401-0261 Email: wlesperance@nec.edu

NH Voters: Strong job approval ratings for Gov. Hassan + Sen. Shaheen

May 13, 2013

Posted in NEC Poll

NH Voters: Strong job approval ratings for
Gov. Hassan + Sen. Shaheen

NEC Poll Shows Narrower Ratings
for Sen. Ayotte

 Click Here to view Final Results and Statistics

New Hampshire voters largely approve of the work being done by the state’s top elected leaders in Concord and in Washington DC.  However, in the latest NEC Poll, Senator Kelly Ayotte’s (R) ratings are significantly lower than the ratings for fellow Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) NH, and New Hampshire Governor Maggie Hassan (D).

“Senator Ayotte has a job approval margin of +5 which is better than some recent numbers from other sources”, commented New England College Polling Center Director Dr. Ben Tafoya. “However, she does not face voters until 2016 so that gives her more time solidify her position.”  Approval ratings are evenly split 45%-45% among a key demographic: independent voters.  The poll showed a positive rating for Ayotte among men (+12) with a small negative among women (-2) with 12% of women unsure.

The survey conducted between May 2 and 5 consisted of responses from 807 randomly selected registered voters in New Hampshire. The survey was conducted by telephone and asked a series of questions regarding voter opinion on political figures in the state.  The margin of error is +/- 3.27%.

On the other side of the aisle, New Hampshire’s top two democratic leaders are enjoying strong approval numbers.  “Senator Shaheen’s numbers indicate she is in a strong position for reelection in 2014,” explains Director Tafoya. “While the general election is still a year and a half in the future, Senator Shaheen has an approval rating at +34 points.”

NEC tested a potential 2014 match-up between Senator Shaheen and former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, who recently admitted he was weighing a run for US Senate in New Hampshire. The poll finds Scott Brown is personally popular with a +12 favorability rating.  However, incumbent Senator Shaheen holds a strong lead in a head to head matchup against Senator Brown, 53% to 35% with 12% undecided.

The NEC poll also found a strong position for Governor Maggie Hassan at a +30 point approval. “The Governor has strong numbers based on her 100 days in office,” continued Tafoya. “She leads a potential 2014 match-up against State Senator Jeb Bradley by 54% to 29%. Governor Hassan leads among Democrats and Un-enrolled voters while State Senator Bradley has a solid lead among Republican voters.”

Senator Bradley holds a +5% approval rating among New Hampshire voters, but 48% say they are unsure about him, meaning most voters either don’t know Jeb Bradley or don’t have enough information about his to formulate an opinion about his job approval.

Other findings from the NEC Poll:

  • 91% of Democrats approve of the job of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen
  • 81% of Republicans approve of the job of Sen. Kelly Ayotte
  • 85% of Democrats approve of the job of Gov. Maggie Hassan
  • Men approve of job done by Sen. Kelly Ayotte: 53%-41%
  • Women narrowly disapprove of the job done by Sen. Kelly Ayotte: 46%-43%
  •  Voters have a 41%-29% approval for former Sen. Scott Brown, 30% are unsure

New England College will release its first 2016 NH Primary poll tomorrow, May 14.