FINAL NEC POLL RESULTS: PRESIDENT SLIGHT FAVORITE TO WIN NH, GOVERNOR’S RACE TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Final New England College Poll Shows Gender Gaps in Both Races
Henniker, NH- The number of undecided voters is dwindling, as are the hours left on the campaign trail for the major candidates in the 2012 election cycle. But one final review of voter opinions in New Hampshire gives a slight edge for President Obama in the Presidential race, but a statistical tie in the campaign to replace Governor John Lynch.
In the final New England College Poll, among 687 respondents, 50% said they would vote for President Barack Obama. 46% of voters in the poll said they would vote for Mitt Romney, 1% indicated they would vote for another candidate and 3% said they were not sure. The margin of error is 3.72%. This marks the first time in the NEC poll that President Obama has reached the 50% threshold.
“For the third poll in a row President Obama is showing strength in New Hampshire,” said Ben Tafoya, Director of the NEC Poll. “He must be considered the favorite, by a small margin, to carry the state on Tuesday.”
The President has significant support among Democrats (92%) and is doing better among Republicans (16%) than Governor Romney is doing among Democrats (7%). The two candidates effectively split the vote among Independents. The major difference between the candidates is among women who strongly back the President, by a 55%-42% margin.
In addition, New Hampshire voters gave the President high marks for his initial emergency response to Hurricane Sandy. His approval rating for handling the hurricane’s aftermath is 67%.
In New Hampshire’s race for Governor, this battle for an open seat remains an open question in the closing days of the campaign. Among 666 likely voters, Democrat Maggie Hassan collected 47% support; Republican Ovide Lamontagne earned 45%. John Babiarz received 1% percent and 7% aren’t sure who to support on Tuesday. The margin for error in this poll is 4.1%.
“In the race for Governor of New Hampshire the NEC Poll shows the race still close and competitive with Democrat Maggie Hassan with a small lead over Republican Ovide Lamontagne. In our polls we have seen a consistent pattern where President Obama is the strongest Democrat on the ballot. If the President over performs expectations it could bode well for candidates like Hassan and the democratic candidates for Congress. On the other hand, if Governor Romney holds that margin below what we have seen in our polling, then it could be a better night for Republican candidates down ballot,” observed Tafoya.
Efforts by each campaign to “get out the vote” will likely prove to be the difference in this race. Hassan is supported by 86% of identified Democrats in the poll; Lamontagne is supported by 84% of Republicans with an even split among Independents.
There is a significant gender gap in this race. Men prefer Lamontagne by a 49%-42% margin. Women prefer Hassan by a 53%-41% margin.
The NEC Poll of NH voters conducted a survey on November 3 and 4, 2012. The sample was pulled from a list of registered voters in NH with phones. The poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Response technology, an automated polling system. The results shown are for likely voters interviewed across the two days and nights. Results were weighted to balance concerns over party identification.
Full poll details can be found at nec.edu.
About New England College:
New England College emphasizes experiential learning as an essential component in the development of an enduring academic community. Building upon a strong liberal arts foundation, we challenge our students to reach their full potential through informed discourse and the pursuit of excellence in a framework of academic freedom. New England College is accredited by the New England Association of Schools and Colleges Inc. (NEASC) through its Commission on Institutions of Higher Education. The Teacher Education Program (and the majors in Elementary Education, Physical Education, Secondary Education, and Special Education) are approved by the New Hampshire Department of Education.