NEW ENGLAND COLLEGE POLL SHOWS RACES FOR PRESIDENT / GOVERNOR TOO CLOSE TO CALL
First of Three NEC Polls Will Track the Races at the Top of NH Ballots
Henniker, NH- If the election were held today, the races for President and Governor are simply too close to call, according to the latest results of the inaugural New England College Poll. In a polling sample of likely voters, the President holds a narrow lead over his rival, and the Governor’s race is a dead heat with less than two weeks before Election Day.
In the race for President, among 571 respondents, 48.7% said they would vote for President Barack Obama, 45.5% said they would vote for Mitt Romney, 2.1% indicated they would vote for another candidate and 3.7% said they were not sure. With a margin of error at 4.1%, this race is a statistical tie.
“The poll shows candidates for President have different strengths,” explains Dr. Ben Tafoya, director of the Polling Center in NEC’s Center for Civic Engagement. “President Obama has a solid lead for voters under the age of 65. However, former Governor Romney leads with those over the age of 65. This is a similar trend to the voting in 2008 when then candidate Obama had a smaller margin over Senator McCain among older voters.”
In addition, the President’s job approval rating stands at 50%, with 45% saying they disapprove of the job he is doing. Women narrowly favor Obama over Romney; men are more evenly split overall.
In New Hampshire’s race for Governor, this battle for an open seat remains an open question in the closing days of the campaign. Among 563 likely voters, Republican Ovide Lamontagne and Democrat Maggie Hassan are tied with 45% each. John Babiarz gathered 1% percent and 9% of voters admit they still aren’t sure who they will vote for on November 6th. Again, the margin for error in this poll is 4.1%.
“New Hampshire is a battleground state at multiple levels on the ballot,” explains Dr. Wayne Lesperance, director of the Center for Civic Engagement at New England College. “We sought the most likely voters for this poll in order to get the best sample of who will turnout in this election. What we found was high interest from respondents and two razor thin margins in both of these races.”
The inaugural NEC Poll of NH voters conducted over three days October 23, 24 and 25. The sample was pulled from a list of registered voters in NH with both landline and cell phones. The poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Response technology, an automated polling system. The results shown are for likely voters interviewed across the three nights.
Dr. Tafoya and Dr. Lesperance crafted the questions and carefully reviewed the responses. They compiled the results of the NEC Poll of New Hampshire voters. “We are confident that the high sampling size and access to cell phone numbers give us the best possible sampling of Granite State voters, and the best representation of what is on their minds going into Election Day.”
NEC will release two more polls tracking the numbers between now and November 6.
About New England College:
New England College emphasizes experiential learning as an essential component in the development of an enduring academic community. Building upon a strong liberal arts foundation, we challenge our students to reach their full potential through informed discourse and the pursuit of excellence in a framework of academic freedom. New England College is accredited by the New England Association of Schools and Colleges Inc. (NEASC) through its Commission on Institutions of Higher Education. The Teacher Education Program (and the majors in Elementary Education, Physical Education, Secondary Education, and Special Education) are approved by the New Hampshire Department of Education.
For additional information please contact Dr. Ben Tafoya or Dr. Wayne Lesperance.