NEW POLL GIVES PRESIDENT OBAMA SOME DAYLIGHT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
NEC Poll Also Shows Clear Leaders in NH Congressional Races
Henniker, NH- With just a few days to go until voters head to the polls, the latest New England College Poll gives the President a slight, but clear lead in the battleground state of New Hampshire. Meantime, two very different story lines are developing around the incumbents battling to keep their seats in the state’s two Congressional races.
In the race for President, among 1017 respondents, 49.5% said they would vote for President Barack Obama, 44.4% said they would vote for Mitt Romney, 2.4% indicated they would vote for another candidate and 3.7% said they were not sure. The margin of error is 3.7%. The President gained slightly from last week’s NEC poll and Mr. Romney dropped a point, as the number of undecided voters begins to decline.
“The gender gap exists with President Obama maintaining a strong lead among women; while men have a more competitive split between the two candidates,” explains Dr. Ben Tafoya, director of the Polling Center in NEC’s Center for Civic Engagement. “If Governor Romney is going to close the gap on the President he will need to perform significantly better among women.”
The President has strong support from Democrats leads among Independents; while Governor Romney has strong support among Republicans. Mr. Obama holds 95% percent support among Democrats; Mr. Romney holds 89% support among Republicans. In the race for Independent voters in New Hampshire, the President has a 49%-39% edge.
In New Hampshire’s race for Congress in the first district, the New England College poll indicates Congressman Frank Guinta is poised to serve a second term in Washington. The Republican incumbent holds a lead over Democratic challenger Carol Shea Porter. Among 511 respondents, Congressman Guinta picked up 48% support, Carol Shea Porter registered 41% support, 2% chose another candidate and 9% remain undecided with four days until the election. The margin for error in this poll is 4.33%.
“Representative Guinta is in a good position for reelection depending on the turnout on Election Day. His support among men outweighs former Representative Shea-Port’s lead among women,” explains Tafoya. “These numbers occur despite the President’s 50% approval rating in the first district.”
In New Hampshire’s second district, the poll shows signs of a potential change. Incumbent Charlie Bass trails democratic challenger Annie Kuster. The NEC poll of 511 respondents indicates Kuster has 47% support, with Congressman Bass collecting 41% support. 1% of those polled chose another candidate and 11% say they remain undecided. The margin of error in the second district poll is 4.33%.
“Although the number of undecided voters remains high going into the campaign’s final weekend, this poll shows Annie Kuster is in a strong position to win the race over Congressman Bass,” says Tafoya. “With the enthusiasm we see among democrats and among women, and given the lead Kuster has among independents, this poll shows it will be tough for Congressman Bass to be re-elected next week.”
The NEC Poll of NH voters conducted a survey October 29, 30 and 31 of 2012. The sample was pulled from a list of registered voters in NH with both landline and cell phones. The poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Response technology, an automated polling system. The results shown are for likely voters interviewed across the three nights. A detailed breakdown of this poll will be available later today at nec.edu.
New England College will release one more poll November 5.
Published: November 2, 2012
About New England College:
New England College emphasizes experiential learning as an essential component in the development of an enduring academic community. Building upon a strong liberal arts foundation, we challenge our students to reach their full potential through informed discourse and the pursuit of excellence in a framework of academic freedom. New England College is accredited by the New England Association of Schools and Colleges Inc. (NEASC) through its Commission on Institutions of Higher Education. The Teacher Education Program (and the majors in Elementary Education, Physical Education, Secondary Education, and Special Education) are approved by the New Hampshire Department of Education.